The Three Secrets of Wise Decision Making by Barry F. Anderson, Winky Wheeler

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By Barry F. Anderson, Winky Wheeler

Booklet by means of Anderson, Barry F.

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Developing relations with others with whom you can discuss important problems can add another resource. Finally, practice, especially on simpler problems or analogous problems that are emotionally less threatening, can strengthen your skills and enable you to accumulate successful experience in dealing rationally with difficult problems. To resist irrationality: • Reduce importance • Reduce uncertainty • Increase hope 28 Chapter 2. COURAGE, CREATIVITY, & BALANCE (There seems to be a form of procrastination that isn't a form of defensive avoidance, at all, since challenging information doesn't lead to emotion and resistance.

The first tells you something about the world and can provide the basis for a sound decision. The second may tell you something about me, but it tells you little about how much money is in my pocket. Rational beliefs are open to falsification; irrational beliefs aren’t. People with “magic rings” are reluctant to leave open any way in which their belief in them can be put at risk. A famous illustration of non-falsifiability involves the reaction of an end-of-the-world cult to the failure of their prophecy (Festinger, Riecken, & Schachter, 1956).

The second-highest-bidder auction provides a dramatic demonstration of escalating commitment (Shubik, 1971). A dollar bill is auctioned off to the highest bidder, but, unlike other auctions, this auction requires that both the highest bidder and the second-highest bidder pay their bids. Usually, in such auctions, the highest bidder and the second-highest bidder each wind up paying more than a dollar, and yet only one of them gets this much in return. How can people be so irrational? Both bidders were probably drawn into the auction thinking that they'd stop before they reached a dollar.

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