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By Daniel Ellsberg
Ellsberg elaborates on "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms" and mounts a robust problem to the dominant idea of rational determination during this publication.
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Extra resources for Risk, Ambiguity and Decision (Studies in Philosophy)
Example text
63. 21bicl, p. 8. The discussion of this example is drawn from my earlier article, "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," Quarterly ]ournal of Economics, Vol. LXXV, No. 4, November, 1961, pp. 644-661. Daniel Ellsberg Most of us might think we could give better answers than that. We could say, "England will bat first," or more cautiously: "I think England will probably bat first". " In this case, it happens that statistical information (on the behavior or dice and coins) is readily available and does seem relevant even to a "single shot" decision, our bet; it will affect the odds we offer.
It is but one very short step from this observation to the conclusion that, when evaluating all of the available options with respect to expected utility, the decisionmaker cannot weakly order them. If preference is to agree with expected utility, as a "neo-Bernoullian" would require, PI will be violated. This must be true in Ellsberg's three-color urn problem. If that is so, it is no longer clear that those who choose I over I1 and IV over I11 are violating P2, the Sure Thing Principle. That principle is a constraint on preference for potential options or acts.
The essence of the situation is action according to opinion, of greater or less foundation and value, neither entire ignorance nor complete and perfect information, but partial knowledge? ~ We shall consider at some length the means and uses of thus quantifying preferences and judgments in such situations; but with the aim eventually of focussing upon quite different circumstances, in which "objective evidence" is, on the contrary, extremely insubstantial, of dubious relevance or conflicting import.