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By Roland W. Scholz
This quantity includes the revised papers of a global symposium on examine on fallacies, biases, and the advance of selection habit lower than uncertainty. The papers are prepared in 5 major sections. The advent outlines the conceptual framework and the way 3 of the sections - Cognitive determination learn, Social interplay, and improvement and Epistemology - are interrelated and in addition how new fields, similar to learn into developmental questions, could be productively built-in. within the 5th part reviews are accumulated, which review the impression of the contributions on selection study itself, and likewise on cognitive psychology, social psychology, monetary concept, ant the self-discipline of arithmetic schooling.
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Extra resources for Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Cognitive Decision Research Social Interaction Development and Epistemology
Sample text
When the processes by which people encode and judge p r o b a b i l i s t i c i n f o r m a t i o n are s u f f i c i e n t l y w e l l understood, then i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e t o p r e d i c t t h e conditions under which i n d i v i d u a l s use s p e c i f i c h e u r i s t i c s o r are subject t o s p e c i f i c biases. Fortunately, theories along these l i n e s are developing, although t h a t work i s s t i l l i n i t s e a r l y stages and i s q u i t e incomplete. See, f o r example, Groner's chapter i n t h i s volume, Tversky and Kahneman's (1980) o r Einhorn and Hogarth's (1982a, b ) theories on judging c a u s a l i t y , o r my work (Wallsten 1976, 1977; Wallsten & Barton 1982) on sequential process- i n g o f d i f f e r e n t i a l l y s a l i e n t dimensions.
1982. Experience and t h e baser a t e f a l l a c y . J. : 1981. P h y s i c i a n s ' use o f p r o b a b i l i s t i c i n f o r m a t i o n i n a r e a l c l i n i c a l s e t t i n g . : 1979. On t h e psychology o f p r e d i c t i o n : Whose i s t h e f a l l a c y ? : 1981. Can human i r r a t i o n a l i t y be e x p e r i m e n t a l l y demonstrated? R. : 1982. The e f f e c t s o f experience on performance i n Wason's s e l e c t i o n task. D. S. : 1977. P r o b a b i l i s t i c i n f o r m a t i o n processing: E f f e c t s o f a biased p a y o f f m a t r i x on choices and b i d s .
A possible reason f o r the r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e empirical work and good agreement among r e s u l t s i s t h a t the conditions f o r e l i c i t i n g these two h e u r i s t i c s appear t o be straightforward and t i e d r a t h e r d i r e c t l y t o well-defined aspects o f the task. A t l e a s t s u p e r f i c i a l l y , i t i s c l e a r when the r e q u i s i t e conditions are present, and when they are not, the h e u r i s t i c s are n o t expected. Indeed, as already indicated, the anchoring and adjustment process i s s u f f i c i e n t l y w e l l s p e c i f i e d t h a t i t can serve as a basis f o r theory development.